The World Cup page simulates the entire tournament 100,000 times and shows the model probabilities per team and per match. It is a statistical model — not a prediction service and not betting advice.
The model in short
Each team's starting strength is based on the FIFA ranking.
Played World Cup matches are taken into account (Bayesian update). Teams performing better or worse than expected shift in strength.
The remaining tournament is simulated 100,000 times. Those simulations produce the probabilities of reaching the semi-final, final and winning the title.
The "include match results" toggle
Prior plus played World Cup matches. The "What the model learned" panel shows which teams turned out stronger or weaker than expected.
Only the FIFA ranking, as if the tournament had not started yet.
The four tabs
Top contenders with probabilities, upcoming matches with win/draw/loss bars, recent results and the group stage.
The knockout bracket from the round of 32 to the final, with the most likely teams to advance per round.
All teams sorted by model strength, with prior and current strength.
Explanation of the model and data quality notes.
Probabilities per match
Every upcoming match shows a bar with three colours: the model probability of a win, draw and loss. Played matches are locked in and feed the model.
Data quality — good to know
Strength is based on the FIFA ranking (prior) plus World Cup statistics. With at most 3 group matches, the sample is small.
xG is not available; the model uses goals for/against as its primary signal.
Penalty shootouts are simulated as 50/50. Host advantage: +12% in the group stage, +6% in the knockout rounds.
Model probabilities are indicative. Do not use them as a basis for financial decisions.
Frequently asked questions
As soon as new matches have been played, the model updates and the 100,000 simulations are re-run with the updated strengths.
That is the difference between the prior (FIFA ranking) and the strength after including played matches. A team performing surprisingly well gets a positive delta.
No. Match Scout uses a Poisson model per club match based on recent form. The World Cup analysis uses team strength indices and Monte Carlo simulation of the whole tournament.