Match Scout calculates the model probability for each fixture based on recent team statistics. Open a fixture and the report compares that probability to bookmaker odds, so you see which market offers value.
How it works
For each upcoming World Cup fixture, the model calculates the probability based on attack and defense indices from both teams. That probability is compared to the book-implied probability, adjusted for margin. The difference is the edge.
Calculate probabilities
Poisson distribution based on attack and defense strength, derived from each team's last 10 fixtures.
Compare to book
Open a fixture and the report puts the model probability next to the book-implied probability per market: 1/odds adjusted for overround. Markets: 1X2, over/under 2.5, BTTS.
Read the edge
Edge = model% - book%. Positive means the model sees more probability than the bookmaker prices in. You find this per market on a fixture's report page.
The model is not adjusted for opponent strength. Figures are indicative and may be skewed for teams that have mainly played against weak or strong opponents.
Match Scout is purely informational. SlipsIQ does not give betting advice and is not responsible for decisions based on model output. Disclaimer